SNS Research Brief 114. Permanent Tolls on the Öresund Bridge – A Threat to Swedish Infrastructure Planning

The Swedish government wants to keep the tolls on the Öresund Bridge even after it has been paid off. This represents a break with Swedish practice and risks undermining the socio-economic planning model regarding transport infrastructure.

This is shown in a new SNS report by Johan Nyström and Jonas Westin, who analyze the effects of a fiscal infrastructure fee.

Brief summary

In its latest infrastructure proposal (Prop. 2024/25:28), the Swedish government introduced a new financing model where the proceeds from the Öresund Bridge will be used to finance other infrastructures in the Öresund region – even after the bridge has been paid off.

This constitutes a break with the principle of marginal cost pricing used in Swedish transport planning, which states that road users should only pay for the societal marginal costs generated by their travel.

This report shows that the proposal challenges the current transport planning model and comes with risks concerning distorted investment decisions, poorer socio-economic efficiency, and reduced legitimacy with regard to transport planning.

Main results

• New financing model without socio-economic analysis. The government’s proposal has not been tested in relation to the established model used for transport planning.
• Small differences with regard to efficiency between toll- and tax-based financing. An estimate shows that the cost of reduced traffic in case the bridge toll remains corresponds to the cost of collecting the same amount via taxes.
• Risk of distorted calculations. Toll roads are underutilized, which affects socio-economic analyses and future priorities.
• Fiscal incentives may lead decisions astray from what is best for the overall economy. If tolls become a source of revenue for new projects, there is a risk that decisions are guided by financing rather than utility.
• Unequal effects and the risk of duplicate payment. Road users pay both through taxes and tolls – even for infrastructure they do not use.

Recommendations of the researchers

• Carry out a socio-economic analysis of the proposal before the current tolls become permanent.
• Avoid creating long-term dependencies on toll revenues in the national planning model.
• Review the legitimacy and fairness of charging user fees for infrastructure that has already been paid off.
• Carry out an in-depth analysis of how permanent tolls affect Swedish transport planning and socio-economic efficiency in the transport system.

“It is odd to introduce a new financing model that may have far-reaching effects on Swedish transport planning without having carried out an impact analysis,” according to Johan Nyström, one of the authors of the report.

About the authors

Johan Nyström is a researcher in transport economics and affiliated with the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) while also working at Nyfou.

Jonas Westin is an associate professor at the Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics and a researcher at the Centre for Regional Science (CERUM), Umeå University.

About the research project SNS Infra

This report is part of the SNS Infra research project, which highlights how Sweden may strengthen its essential infrastructure – physical as well as digital – for the future.

The project focuses on obstacles and opportunities concerning investments in transport, energy, water, and communication systems, with a particular focus on digitalization, financing, and collaboration between public and private actors.