Determinants of Recidivism: How Criminal Justice Interactions and the Post-Release Environment Affect Repeat Offending

The report analyzes four factors that may affect recidivism: the probability of getting caught, alternatives to prison, the effects of prison and the many dimensions of the prison experience, and the post-release environment. Randi Hjalmarsson, professor of economics at the University of Gothenburg, compares her conclusions with proposed and implemented reforms in Sweden.

With a growing prison population and increasing concern about crime in Sweden, it is crucial that policy makers understand whether causal evidence exists that criminal justice policy proposals will have their intended effects.  Disentangling causation from correlation in the data is incredibly hard for researchers to do. But it can be done with carefully constructed research designs, which are often based on so-called natural experiments. This report aims to highlight to policy makers what we do and do not yet know about what works to reduce recidivism. I also hope it fosters future interactions between economists and policy makers in the criminal justice space, says Randi Hjalmarsson.

When it comes to the likelihood of getting caught, research from Denmark and the United States shows that being registered in DNA databases reduces recidivism. DNA registers are used in Sweden as well, but there is no research to date on the impact of DNA registration on recidivism.

Electronic monitoring is used increasingly around the world to offset growing prison populations and has been shown in many contexts to reduce recidivism. It is not clear, however, whether the results of existing research would generalize to further expansions of electronic monitoring in Sweden.

Research studying the causal effects of prison on recidivism has mixed findings. Some prisons reduce recidivism for some offenders.  These effects depend on, for instance, the offender’s characteristics, sentence length, and prison conditions. In the Nordic countries, where prison conditions are historically high and rehabilitation emphasized, there are some noticeable positive effects for some groups.

However, even the best prisons may not succeed in rehabilitating offenders if they find it difficult to find a well-paying job. This is potentially a growing problem in Sweden as criminal records become an increasingly salient part of the recruitment process. There is clear causal evidence that improved legitimate labor market opportunities reduce recidivism.

Research shows that economic opportunities also matter for an individual to successfully reintegrate into society. Thus, the question of how to reduce recidivism is not only relevant for criminal justice policy makers but also those engaged in creating and implementing social and economic policies, argues Randi Hjalmarsson.

Author

Randi Hjalmarsson is a professor of economics at the University of Gothenburg and sits on the Swedish Prison and Probation Service’s scientific council. She has previously written the SNS report Social Policies as Crime Control.

About the report

The report “Determinants of Recidivism: How Criminal Justice Interactions and the Post-Release Environment Affect Repeat Offending” is part of the SNS research project Crime and Society. It runs from 2022 to 2024 and focuses on how to prevent crime, and which measures may be effective in this regard.